8月14日，英国央行首席经济学家Andy Haldane在《每日邮报》发表署名文章，表达其对英国经济的最新看法。
Andy Haldane认为这次疫情带来的影响并不足以与之前的经济大萧条相提并论，并且政府史无前例的财政措施，能保护大家免受灾难性的损失。
文章中，Andy Haldane特别强调了民众的信心，对恢复经济的重要性，也指出疫情不只是给英国经济带来了负面影响，也带动了线上经济，加速了产业洗牌。
对于经济复苏，英国央行首席经济学家也承认，虽然政府一系列刺激政策已经起了效果，经济在平稳复苏中，但完全恢复尚需时日。
以下是亲笔全文，由英伦投资客逐字翻译，英文附于文末：
作者：Andy Haldane 英国央行首席经济学家 2020年8月14日
我知道，现在英国各地的人都感到焦虑。鉴于持续的悲观新闻，许多人、许多公司对英国经济的信心很低，不确定性很高。
新冠疫情是一场公共卫生危机，对于每个人来说，可能是一场个人悲剧，对整个社会来说，则可能是一场经济危机。
在封锁期间，整个英国的经济活动几乎在一夜之间崩溃了大约四分之一，这是一个世纪以来最大的跌幅。根据英格兰银行的最新预测，到今年年底，失业率将上升至7.5％左右，即约250万人。
面对前所未有的经济风险，世界各地的政府和中央银行都提供了前所未有的财政支持。
在英国，政府已制定了支持计划，例如工资补贴计划和企业无息贷款计划。要知道，英国央行在和平时期并没有大规模干预的先例。目前我们已将英国的利率降低至接近零，并另外宣布了3000亿英镑的量化宽松计划。
这种支持就是一个巨大的保障政策，可以保护人们的收入和工作，并降低其借贷成本。没有这些，我们可能会失去数百万个工作机会，抵押和贷款的借贷成本将会上升。
未来，英国央行将会继续为经济提供支持，直到经济进入稳定复苏，我们认为，这种保障政策应该要成为人们获得信心的来源。
另外，我还想提一个对经济保持谨慎乐观的原因，那就是英国经济其实已经在悄悄复苏。
英国的经济活动并没有像石头般坠落。事实上，它已经上升了三个多月，比任何人预期的都要早。它的恢复速度也远超预期。
Economic activity in the UK is not falling like a stone. In fact, it has now been rising for more than three months, sooner than anyone expected. It has also recovered far faster than anyone expected.
我估计，在过去三个月中，英国经济平均每周增长约1％。尽管这依然大大低于疫情之前的水平，但英国很可能已经至少挽回了一半的损失。
拉动英国经济的主要动力是消费。到6月，零售支出已经恢复到了疫情之前的水平。
虽然高街店铺关了，但民众把钱花在了别的地方。在大街小巷保持安静的同时，英国的线上消费猛增了70％以上。餐馆和酒吧的收入仍然很低，但外卖、电子产品和DIY产品的支出却猛增。
英国房产和汽车市场也反弹到了疫情之前的水平，再次远超预期。英国央行预计这种复苏将继续下去。尽管不确定性很大，但我们预计英国下半年GDP将增长20％以上，实现有记录以来的最快季度增长。
不过，就业市场的恢复将需要更长的时间。但我们也要看到，随着支出和商业信心的回升，失业风险已经有所降低，英国央行的最新预测显示，失业人数将比三个月前减少约70万。
正如每天新增的新冠病例一样，我们面临的不确定性仍然很高，并且对病毒的担忧确实存在。
但在这样的不确定时期，最重要的是，不要让整天刷屏的坏消息淹没好的经济新闻。
人们对未来恐惧，与病毒一样具有传染性，而且，如果不加以制止，恐惧将会迅速蔓延。因此在这段时间，银行和政府提供的保障非常重要。
我们需要认识到正在复苏的经济势头，和我们面前的机遇。
现在是时候换一种方式看待经济了，比如在挽回一半损失后，我们可以将经济之瓶视为半满，而非半空。
毕竟，民众对经济的信心也是会传染的，如果绝大部分人有信心，消费、工作、收入也能良性循环。
在这样的困难时期，增强对未来经济的信心，真的至关重要。
英国央行首席经济学家署名文章原文：
ANDY HALDANE，14 August 2020
People right across the UK are feeling anxious. Confidence among households and businesses is low and uncertainty sky-high, not surprisingly given the steady stream of gloomy news.
Covid is a public health crisis and, for many, a personal tragedy. But it is an economic crisis too for many people.
During lockdown, economic activity across the UK collapsed almost overnight by around a quarter, the largest fall for a century. On the Bank of England's latest forecasts, unemployment is set to rise to around 7.5 per cent by the end of the year, or around 2.5million people.
Facing unprecedented economic risks, governments and central banks around the world have provided unprecedented degrees of financial support.
In the UK, the Government has put in place support schemes such as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, or furlough. There is no peacetime precedent for intervention on this scale. The Bank of England has cut UK interest rates to close to zero, along with an additional 300billion of so-called quantitative easing.
This support has acted like a gigantic insurance policy, protecting people's incomes and jobs and reducing their borrowing costs. Without it, many millions more jobs would have been lost and borrowing costs on mortgages and loans would have risen.
The Bank will continue to support the economy until recovery is well under way, so this insurance policy should be a source of comfort and confidence. And there is a second reason for cautious optimism. The foundations for an economic recovery - a rapid one - are already in place, hiding in plain sight.
Economic activity in the UK is not falling like a stone. In fact, it has now been rising for more than three months, sooner than anyone expected. It has also recovered far faster than anyone expected.
Over the past three months, I estimate the economy has been rising, on average, by around 1 per cent per week. While that leaves activity well below pre-Covid levels, the UK has already recovered perhaps half of its losses.
The motor has been the British consumer. Retail spending had, by June, already recovered its pre-Covid levels.
Facing shuttered shops, people spent their money differently. While high streets remain quiet, online sales have shot up by over 70 per cent. Restaurant and pub takings are still well down, but spending on takeaways, electrical goods and DIY products has rocketed.
The housing and car markets have also bounced back to pre-Covid levels, again far faster than expected. The Bank expects this recovery to continue. While uncertainty is great, GDP is expected to rise by over 20 per cent in the second half of the year - by far the fastest rise since quarterly records began.
The recovery in jobs will take longer. Nonetheless, as spending and business confidence have picked up, risks to jobs have receded too. The Bank's latest forecast suggests around 700,000 fewer jobs would be lost than it expected three months ago.
Uncertainty is still high and concerns about the virus are real, as the pick-up in new Covid cases illustrates.
But, at uncertain times like this, it is important that good economic news is not drowned out by the bad and the ugly.
Fear can be as contagious as the virus itself - and, left unchecked, could all too quickly become self-fulfilling. That is why the insurance provided by the Bank and the Government is so important.
We should recognise the economic momentum already in place and the opportunities that lie ahead.
Having recovered half of its losses, now is the time to see the economic glass as half-full not half-empty. Public confidence is contagious too, generating a virtuous circle of spending, jobs and incomes.
At difficult times like these, boosting confidence about our financial future would reap its own economic reward.
